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Australians are on edge over what the upcoming 2022-2023 summer could hold for the country.
Many families are still rebuilding following the towering bushfires and dangerous floods that have destroyed communities in recent years.
A major alert from the Bureau of Meteorology earlier this week has increased fears that Australia could be heading for another deadly December, January and February period.
With summer still more than three months away, here is everything you need to know about what it could be like.
What’s Australia’s summer looking like?
Meteorologists say it is still too early to predict with certainty what Australia’s summer will look like, with detailed climate outlooks expected to be released once spring begins.
But the bureau gave a big indication that the country could be in for another wet summer earlier this week when it moved from “La Nina WATCH” to “La Nina ALERT”.
It means there is now around a 70 per cent chance of a La Nina weather event hitting Australia this spring.
La Nina weather events are associated with heavy downpours and widespread flooding and drove the torrid conditions experienced in the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 summers.
The bureau advised that if another La Nina event becomes established in the Pacific Ocean, “the wet conditions will persist into summer”.
“At the moment the Bureau of Meteorology is on La Nina watch, which means that we‘re more likely to see a La Nina this summer,” bureau meteorologist Laura Boekel said.
“If we do see that La Nina, then we could expect to see a wet summer as well.”
Sky News meteorologist Alison Osborne said a La Nina would likely last at least until the beginning of summer.
“It’s looking like a weak one that will probably last until the beginning of summer at the earliest,” she told NCA NewsWire.
“But there’s a lot of divergence as to what it will do after January.”
What’s the significance of another La Nina weather event?
Australia is staring down the barrel of its third consecutive La Nina weather event following the bureau’s alert.
The country has only experienced three consecutive La Nina events since records started being kept. The last instance of this occurring was more than two decades ago from 1998 to 2001.
When the bureau’s La Nina criteria have been met in the past, as it was on Tuesday, a La Nina event has developed around 70 per cent of the time.
Beyond leading to cooler temperatures and more tropical cyclones, the presence of a La Nina is mainly associated with an increased chance of rain and widespread flooding.
Of the 18 La Nina events since 1900, including multi-year events, 12 have resulted in floods in some parts of Australia.
Ms Osborne said it was also too early to pinpoint where flooding could take place, but possible areas included South East Queensland, NSW’s coastline, Victoria and even Tasmania.
But she warned this flooding could be “dangerous” due to the wet conditions experienced over winter.
“We are looking at a rinse and repeat of last summer going into autumn when we had our more dominant La Nina-driven weather,” Ms Osborne said.
“The issue this time is we‘ve been robbed of dry winter weather in eastern Australia.
“Soils have been dried out … that means flooding is likely to be exacerbated because it’s falling over an area that’s a bit wet. It’s not falling over an area that is dry or was previously dry.
“That could be quite dangerous for flooding and it will probably take less rain to produce that dangerous flooding in a few regions as well.”
What’s the advice for the public?
The bureau’s La Nina alert prompted NSW and Queensland authorities to warn the public about what the weather event could mean for their respective states.
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk told residents more rain than usual during spring and summer was expected.
“The good news is we’re not expecting a big bushfire season, but we are expecting a wetter than normal spring,” she said on Monday.
“These conditions could be similar to the conditions over the summer of this year.
“I don’t want Queenslanders to get alarmed, but what we do want to see is people to be prepared.
“It’s so early in the cycle that we can do everything we can to prepare for a very wet spring leading into once again a wet summer.”
This rain will lead to an increased risk of flooding throughout the state, as the soil has not had a chance to dry up due to a wet winter season.
Queensland Fire and Emergency Services Commissioner Greg Leach also explained that there was still a risk of bushfires even with the projected wet weather.
“Our modelling still shows that we’re likely to experience a normal bushfire season,” he said.
“Whilst we’re unlikely to see the extensive bushfires such as we saw in 2018-2019, we are going to see significant grassfire activity in some parts of the state.
“The recent rain we‘ve had has brought on a significant amount of grass load growth through western, central and southern parts of Queensland, and the frosts that we’ve seen in recent weeks has dried off much of that vegetation.”
In NSW, SES Commissioner Carlene York similarly warned residents to expect adverse weather and prepare for possible floods.
“With wet soils, high rivers, full dams and the outlook for above average rainfall, there remains an elevated risk of flooding,” she said.
“Know your own flood risk, develop your flood plan and make sensible and safe decisions.
“Simple things like preparing an emergency evacuation kit can be incredibly useful and help you in the event you need to evacuate your home.”
The state’s approach to future floods and other disasters will look different going forward following a damning report into the Northern Rivers and Hawkesbury-Nepean floods.
As a result of the inquiry’s recommendations, Resilience NSW will be transformed into a “leaner, nimbler agency” called Recovery NSW.
A partial merger of NSW SES and the bigger NSW Rural Fire Service was also recommended.
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