Oscar Futures: The 12 Contenders of Christmas

Each week* between now and January 24, when the Oscar nominations are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes of this year’s Academy Awards race. This spring “Oscar Futures” column, we’ll share insider gossip, analyze brand new developments and track industry buzz to find out who’s up, who’s down and who’s leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.

The Prize Circus takes a mid-season break during the holidays: Between last week’s Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations, and the Globes telecast on Jan. 10, not much happens. So instead of giving our usual up-and-down judgments, let’s embrace the spirit of the season and zoom out to take stock(ing) of the 12 awards hopefuls with the best chance of taking home Oscar gold.

1. Everything everywhere at once
The multiverse hit is so un-Oscar-esque that it’s hard to believe it could be its predecessor. But consider this: Few other films in the race can match its mix of critical acclaim, box office success, heartfelt appeal and sheer originality. The picture and original screenplay nominations feel like locks, and three acting nominations are probably the word.

Still, if you’re looking for a reason to doubt that a gonzo comedy about intergenerational trauma can go far, this week’s Oscars shortlists might be it. In the first sample of actual academy members, EEAAO missed the clip in Visual Effects and Makeup & Hairstyling. This is not fatal – Nightmare alleya much weaker contender, fared poorly on the shortlists last year and still got a Best Picture nomination — but it’s a reminder that the film’s brilliant sweep of tastemaker predecessors may not be guaranteed to be repeated once we enter the industrial phase.

2. The Fabelman family
If Everything everywhere certainly isn’t proving to be the academy’s cup of tea, could it favor the film everyone agrees is right in the Oscars’ sweet spot? Steven Spielberg’s cinematic memoir might as well have been engineered in a lab to appeal to the hearts and minds of Academy members: It’s an extremely personal project from a living legend working through complicated emotions about his family history and the art form he’s served for 50 years.

But its reputation as the early Best Picture predecessor might work against it. Although The Fabelman family is stingier than it appears, it’s all too easy for those who haven’t seen the film to write it off as schmaltz. It feels a bit like The power of the dog did last year — a very strong contender on paper, but the fact that people seem reluctant to get behind it suggests that it hasn’t quite sealed the deal. Also likes The power of the doga credible alternative to Spielberg in the Best Director race has yet to emerge.

3. Banshees of Inisherin
Martin McDonagh’s Irish homecoming has caught on EEAAO by the critical leads, and early results suggest it will be a strong act: the film looks likely to pull in four acting nominations, with Colin Farrell and Kerry Condon good odds to win in their respective categories. In addition, Banshees feels like the kind of quiet, well-loved picture that gets a boost from the ballot. Good craic.

4. Top Gun: Maverick
Every season around this time, commentators begin to argue that the Academy can recapture the hearts of ordinary moviegoers by rewarding the highest-grossing film of the year. Normally these campaigns are doomed to fail, but Top Gun: Maverick has a rock-solid narrative that its predecessors didn’t: “Reward the movie that saved theaters!” (That the film’s fanbase is significantly older than Spider-Man: No Way HomeThat helps, too.) If Joseph Kosinski starts cracking the Best Director lineups, we’ll know Maverick is a bona fide threat.

5. Tar
Cate Blanchett will duke it out with Michelle Yeoh in Best Actress, but what about the big category? For a certain segment of the Internet—which just happens to overlap with the readership of this very site—Todd Field’s high-stakes cultural drama is the movie of the year. Many critics groups agree, but if ever there was a movie that wouldn’t appeal to the types of people filling in THRs anonymous Oscar ballots, it’s this one.

6. Avatar: The Way of Water
Doing very well at the box office (although initial reports were slightly off expectations) and has appeared everywhere it’s due, including the Oscars shortlists. Cannibalize it Top Gunor do Top Gun cannibalize it?

7. Elvis
One of the many beneficiaries of the somewhat underwhelming harvest at the end of the year, Elviss $150 million domestic haul looks even better compared to its competitors’ meager earnings. Austin Butler looks like a lock for a Best Actor spot, and Baz Luhrmann might even make up for his Moulin Rouge director snob too.

8. Women who speak
This is the kind of movie that people who hate the Oscars imagine every Oscar movie to be: a sour, raw drama about a group of Mennonite women who decide on the right response to institutionalized sexual abuse. But why should we give these people all the power? The film finally opens this week, and while it’s lost some luster after some high-profile dudes, critical love for Sarah Polley’s intimate, empathetic contender should ensure it stays in the hunt.

9. Babylon
I admit I got a bit of a cold Babylon, a film that many of its most vocal supporters seem to admit is at least semi-terrible. But it tracks well, and its hometown advantage and impeccable craftsmanship have kept it in the race. It was expected to enter the list of points; Also getting into Sound and Makeup & Hairstyling is a sign that there is real spirit in this cup.

10. Ice Cream Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
About the original Knives Out couldn’t get into best picture, what’s the chance its sequel can? There is one more spot available this year, and a few sure contenders compared to when Knives Out ran in 2019. Also, it helps that Glass onion has become Netflix’s top priority almost by default.

11. Nothing new on the western front
Speaking of Netflix, the streamer may have another contender on its hands with Germany’s official Oscar entry, which made a surprisingly strong showing on the shortlists, cracking score, sound, visual effects and makeup and hairstyling to join the expected bid in International Film. Its gushing depiction of World War I trench warfare won’t be for everyone, but all that blood and guts clearly gets a reaction from the academy’s craft contingent. Could Edward Berger be this year’s token foreign language director?

12. RRR
This year’s lovable underdog took a couple of knocks on the charts, with the only field it cracked being Original Song for ‘Naatu Naatu’. (Thank goodness it got in there.) I still think there’s enough passion to make this a possibility, but we may have to take it on faith. The free viewings in New York City during the holidays is a fun stunt.

In alphabetical order: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (has a legitimate acting challenger in Angela Bassett, also did well on the shortlists); No (persevere); Triangle of grief (should do well with international voters), The choice (good per-screen averages suggest Brendan Fraser’s comeback tour has had an impact) The woman’s king (Viola Davis looks great, but the film itself only made the Score shortlist).

*After this week, Oscar Futures will be on vacation. We will be back in January.